Election 2016 Preview: Making Sense of Tuesday

Craig HueyArticles, Current Events, Election, Election Recommendations, Election ResultsLeave a Comment

Election 2016 Preview: Making Sense of Tuesday

What can we look forward to tomorrow?

How will the Electoral College play out for the Presidential candidates?

Who will win the White House? And what about the US Senate and the House of Representatives?

So far …

Hillary Clinton has had the advantage, since the states with large shares of electoral votes are falling into her column already: California, New York, and Illinois.

For Donald Trump to win, he must carry every state that Romney won in 2012 plus:

  1. Florida
  2. Ohio
  3. Nevada
  4. New Hampshire

Trump does not need the West Coast or New England states, but he needs to finish strong in the Rust Belt, which includes Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Trump’s momentum is not sudden, but a growing movement.

He has turned from the “non-Clinton” to a viable contender with views shared by many voters. They are particularly concerned about the Supreme Court, since the next President will nominate at least three and up to five new justices. Trump has provided a core list of nominees who will protect our rights, while Hillary Clinton has remained distinctly vague about the issue.

Of the swing states, which ones are veering toward Trump?

  • Arizona
  • Georgia
  • Iowa
  • Missouri

Which ones are going toward Clinton?

  • Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan

Currently, Clinton’s edge in Colorado and Pennsylvania are small, within the margin of error, and could slip, giving Trump the victory.

Ohio has drifted consistently into Trump’s column, which will strengthen his chances, but not solidify them without Florida.

Final Reflection

One cannot assume that what we see in the polls will play out on Election Day. Just because a voter says he will vote for one candidate does not mean that he will. Voters have often changed their minds in the past.

Pundits have also talked about the “Trump” effect, in that voters are voting for Donald Trump, but they do not want to be labeled or shamed for being Trump supporters. So, they say something different to the pollsters.

This election is absolutely critical to the future of our country. The next President and Congress will have to make serious decisions about abortion, healthcare (specifically Obamacare), taxes, jobs, immigration, national security, and more.

Voters who have planned where and how they will vote are more likely to actually do so. It’s very important to make sure that you have everything ready to cast your ballot in this election.


Let me know what you think. Email me at craig@electionforum.org

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